182
3
"and the Committee do not see their way to take either individual or combined act on in recommending to the Government any change in the existing currency here," and at the General Meeting in 1898, 5th April, the Chair- man said, "There seems to live been great difference of opinion in the Singapore Chamber on this complex problem of the silver question, but here we could feel nous so far as the standard is concerned, as it is quite impracticable to effect a divorce from the currency of China, where our main trade lies, and with which we are in such proximity." The situation we have in these days to face is more ae- centuated than before, and we have now to consider whether, in view of all the cir cumstances which have transpired of recent years, it is advisable to alter previous views, or to adhere to same. This question seriously affects all in the Colony, with the exception possibly, of the natives, who may be affected in a lesser degree, or who may conceivably benefit to some extent from the cheaper silver, but I take it that what we are chiefly concerned to consider is how any such proposed change as a resort to a gold basis, or other means of arrivi g at a fixity of oxchange, is likely to affect the trade of the place as a whole, a question of the most complex mature, and one requiring the deepest insight of the most learned experts in such matters. It appears to me that there is too great a disposition shown on the part of some writers in the public Press to ignore or to gloss over the serious difficulties in the way, and to propound measures which sound eaarmingly simple, but which would be totally workable in actual practice, whilst others give utterance to vaguo complaints that "something must be done," but at the same time suggest uo remedy. Naturally we are all prone to look at things from our own personal point of view. I feel quite assured, if our dollars are to be demonetised, and the currency placed on a gold basis, there will be a fearful bill to meet in dis- posing of our demonetised currency, which is estimated at many millions-bow many millions there are some of our banking friends may pos- sibly be able to guess-and how this loss is to be met I cannot well couceive, nor do the complainants in the papers venture to suggest, at all events they are discreetly silent on the point. I doubt very much whether the Govern- inent would foot such a bill. This is one of the "Lions in the path"-and a monster be is— which complainants should first show us their ideas about disposing of. We should 10 doubt each of us like to
dollars converted into a fixed sterling sum, possibly above to-day's parity, but the great question with which we here are concerned is, would that benefit or rain our trade as a whole ? We seem, from the nature of things, io- extricably bound up with China in the
see oar
UIL-
2
1 matter of trade and currency, and till that great Empire goes Gold" I fail to see how we cau take such a course. "What is que man's meat is another man's poison," and so, as in previous years was pointed out to our Singa- pore friends, "the positions occupied by the two Colonies are very different."
My own personal view, therefore, is that, although å gold basis would no doubt benefit many individuals here, the Colony, from its peon- liar situation, would inevitably suffer, and heavily so, in its trade by adopting any other currency than that in which the foreign trade with China is conducted, and that if a change be made, we shall see a gradual setting away from us of the tide to ports and places on the mainland with a gradual tendency to leave Hongkong like a ship stranded on a reef with the tide gone down. That would not in the end benefit the individual, and would be a very great calamity indeed to the Colony at large, Then, how would the adoption of a gold basis suit the native traders of the place? I am quite prepared to hear some of the public urge that this is a British Colony and that in such matters the native does not require much or any consideration as against the foreigners' necessi- ties or requirements, but, as Government assis- tance would be necessary before any such change could be brought about, I do not for a moment think that the interests of the native traders would be ignored, but that they would be given the fullest weight to, and, if I do not misjudge the position, I hazard the opinion that the interests of the natives here are bound up with cheap silver, and, since they would have in one way or another to pay their share of the heavy cost of demonetizing the dollar, to which I Lave already referred, is it at all likely, as things are, that such a change would be brought about, or assented to by the Government to the damage of the native trading interest? As to the chances in favour of China "going gold" there are so many factors to be taken into consideration that one would require to write volumes, and have a vast store of special knowledge to deal with such a mighty problem, As regards the liquidation of her foreign gold indebtedness, the institution of a gold currency would at first seem to simplify matters, but, with all her currency arrangements in such a chaotic state, and the general backwardness of her fiscal and other institutions, I hardly think any one is bald enough to tackle such a pro- blem just now, nor in the future until unheard of reformis can be introduced. For the present at all events it appears to me that her interarts are entirely bound up in silver, as she can only hope in the end to pay for her imports and indebtedness by her exports, and with cheap silver these last are placed in a position of unique advantage vis-a-vis those of the gold- using countries of the world. There can be no
donbt that the present low price of silver will stimulate the export trade of China (although that may be a plant of slower growth than wo should like to see) and as a consequence China must absorb more and more of white metal, and same should at least have a steadying effect on our exchange. The straits Settlements may decide to adopt gold, but I submit that their po- sition as a country with steady and valuable ex ports is so different from that of our small islaud with absolutely no production of our own to speak of that we cannot possibly follow unless the lead is taken by China, of which country, for all practical purposes, we are simply the principal southern port Currency questions are usually considered to be work for experts, but I think there can be little doubt that these would all, for once, have no difficulty in agreeing to this, viz.--That Hongkong is in no position to dream of a standard for herself apart from Chiva. I have endeavoured in the foregoing to give some of my views, but am ready to avow that the subject is one which calls for much more insight and special knowledge than I possess, and is one about which even experts of the first rank might possibly be found to differ, so I am quite prepared to find mach diversity of opinion on the part of the general body of our members, as well as among the public generally in spite of the conclusions we may arrive at round this Committee table. I shall be glad to listen to any views on this subject which you, gentle. men, may choose to express. I must add that Mr. Shewan has written a letter to the Secre- tary regretting his inability to attend the meeting to-day, but has been good enough to write down his views on this subject, which are as follows:
"I am
in favour of a gold currency for all countries except for Hongkong until China adopts either a gold currency or a gold standard. If we adopted a gold currency io Hongkong, the exchange banks would be driven to open Branches and do their business in Canton, and with the departure of bank business, other business would follow, and the result would be that the trade and industries of Hongkong would suffer a severe blow. The prosperity of this Colony has been built upon very slight foundations, and I do not think we should be wise in running any risk of hurting it.
"Whatever Singapore may decide to do is no criterion for Hongkong. The conditions there are different from those here. They chiefly depend upon countries using a gold standard, but we upon a country using silver exclusively. "I fully sympathise with those people of moderate means who particularly feel the pressure of increased cost of living. This, how- ever, will only be temporary, wages out here have risen and will continue to rise as the sterling value of the dollar falls, and if a man
receives for his dollar loss to remit home than he did before, he will, on the other hand, have more dollars with which to buy his remittance, so the thing remains as broad as it is long. As the sterling value of silver falls, so, I think, will the cost in dollars of labour and commodities and though in a lesser degree perhaps, of laud and other property, rise. These conditions will thas continue to adjust themselves until the limit, which cannot be very far off now, is reached."
The Vice-CHAIRMAN-AS Mr. Smith was not present at the last meeting when the sabject was under discussion, I suggest that he might give the Committee his opinions regarding same from a banker's point of
view.
Mr. SMITH Speaking generally, I am ju accord with the rien's just expressed by the Chairman, whose remarks appeared to me to cover most of the ground. Looking at the question more particularly from an exchange and financial standpoint it must not be forgotten that a large portion of the internal trade between North and South China is financed through Hongkong, and that practically the whole of the great trade of Canton and South Chiga with other countries is at present centred here; the possession and retention of which is of vital importance. Currency flows to and from Canton freely accord ng to the movements of trade and the state of the money markets, and I am strongly of opinion that the adoption of a monetary standard in Hongkong different from that of China would not benefit this Colony as a great commercial centre, but would inevitably result in that all important trade gradually leaving Hongkong.
MR. WILCOX asked how many millions of dollars would be lot loose in this Colony if the Straits Settlements started a gold currency.
Mr. SMITH replied that he was not in a posi. tion at the moment to give an accurate estimate; he did not know how they would be dealt with there.
The CHAIRMAN put the question whether the Committee wished to depart from the attitude of the Chamber expressed in the letter to the Singapore Chamber in 1897.
The Vice-CHAIRMAN-When the matter was discussed at the last Committee Meeting it was agreed that nothing had arisen to alter the position then taken up and that this special meet- ing has been called fo give the absent members a chance to discuss the matter and to decide whether it was advisable to get the opinion of the whole of the Chamber in general meeting, and also, in the event of a general meeting being called, whether the Committes should express their views on the subject for the consi- deration of the members as a whole,
Hon. C. W. DICKSON-Mуy views are that the existence of Hongkong is not essential to
544
1
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.